Since Kawhi Leonard joined the Los Angeles Clippers in 2019, Pascal Siakam has practically been playing for the Toronto Raptors. Siakam experienced a dramatic increase in his offensive contribution during that first season sans Leonard. Field goal attempts increased by almost seven a game, and his usage rate shot up to 27.8%, the level of NBA stars, from 20.5%, just above the 20% league average. Over the last three seasons, Siakam has developed into an All-NBA forward and one of the top 25 players in the league, and his rate of growth has remained relatively constant.
That is until now. As Scottie Barnes has flourished this year, Siakam’s offense has tumbled with a usage rate now sitting at 20.8%, essentially a glorified offensive role player. For context, Siakam isn’t even Toronto’s second-most-used offensive player this season. Dennis Schröder owns that title with a 21% usage rate while Barnes is sitting at 25%, a surprisingly low number for the team’s most-used offensive weapon. Around the league, players like Jonas Valanciunas, Andrew Wiggins, and Naz Reid all have a higher usage rate than Siakam.
Part of that transition away from Siakam is certainly offensive innovation from the Raptors who have moved toward a more egalitarian offense focused on ball-movement rather than mismatch hunting. There was always an expectation that Siakam’s shot attempts would come down a tad, as they have by nearly five per game, but the hope was better efficiency would allow Siakam to keep his box score stats relatively similar. That just hasn’t been the case for the 29-year-old soon-to-be unrestricted free agent.
Siakam is shooting a career-worst 41.2% from the floor through seven games and his points per game have cratered to 15.4, the lowest number since his sophomore season. It is, of course, early in the season and there’s plenty of time for Siakam to bounce back. Last season, for example, he went through a seven-game stretch in early March in which he averaged 15.9 points on 41.1% shooting but nobody remembers that in an otherwise impressive campaign because it was mid-season rather than the entire sample size of Siakam’s year.
However, concerns regarding Siakam’s compatibility with his developing teammate will only grow as Barnes continues to thrive in Toronto’s new scheme. This season, the Raptors made it apparent that they were hesitant to give Siakam a long-term contract because they wanted to see how he would fit into their new setup. There has been room for improvement with early returns. Although there’s no guarantee it will remain that way, Siakam’s tenure with the Raptors might be coming to an end.
