Matt Chapman’s time with the Blue Jays came to an end when he signed with the Giants Wednesday, ruling out a return to Toronto. The Blue Jays’ additions of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner did not rule out the possibility of Chapman and the Jays reaching an agreement, especially since Cody Bellinger (like Chapman, a Boras Corporation client) recently re-signed with his former team on a short-term contract with multiple opt-outs.
The Jays were also linked to Chapman’s market earlier this winter, and their interest in keeping him predates his free agency. Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had turned down a contract offer for more than $100 million over four or five years. Mitchell elaborated in a post on X earlier today, stating that the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year contract worth $120 million.
Chapman received a three-year, $54 million guarantee from San Francisco, and the third baseman can opt out after the 2024 or 2025 seasons. Based only on cash worth, it is easy to question Chapman’s choice to reject Toronto’s extension offer at this time, yet six years and $120 million would have appeared to be a good deal for Chapman throughout much of the 2023 season. Even though a finger injury contributed to Chapman’s significant dropoff at the plate late in the season, MLBTR projected him to sign a six-year, $150 million contract this winter, citing his still-excellent defensive play, outstanding advanced metrics, and the lack of position-player depth in the rest of the free agent class.
However, a thriving market never seemed to emerge. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants were the only teams publicly linked to Chapman, and the third baseman finally chose the shorter-term deal with San Francisco, with the opt-out allowing him to re-enter free agency early next summer. He’ll receive a $20 million salary from the Giants before making that decision, and a more consistent 2024 season will likely position Chapman for a more lucrative long-term contract. While simply signing that agreement with the Blue Jays would have eliminated any future uncertainty, Chapman appears prepared to bet on himself to have a better platform year.
From Toronto’s perspective, it is unclear whether the Jays (or any other organizations) offered Chapman this type of player option-heavy shorter-term contract at any stage. If the Blue Jays were truly without Chapman, Mitchell wonders if payroll limitations played a role, as the Jays are on track for a club-record payroll for the second straight year, as well as a second consecutive year of luxury tax overage. RosterResource estimates Toronto’s tax bill at roughly $248.6 million, and re-signing Chapman to an average annual value of $18 million would have taken Toronto well above the second tier ($257 million) of luxury tax penalties and closer to the third tier, which begins at $277 million.
It’s possible that the Jays are content enough with Kiner-Falefa, Turner, and their own infield possibilities that they’re willing to let Chapman go even at a discount. Perhaps the Jays made Chapman a similar offer to the Giants’ contract, but Chapman decided to return to the Bay Area and reunite with Bob Melvin, his former manager with the Athletics.
