Joel Payamps is having a respectable follow-up to last year’s spectacular season, but some unexpected improvements with his hallmark breaking ball have him looking more like a solid middle reliever than the fantastic setup arm he was in 2023.
Shortly before Opening Day, I suggested two changes for Joel Payamps’ fastball usage. The first was to throw more four-seam fastballs, resulting in more swings and misses. The second was to use his two-seamer to target the inner third of the zone for jam shots rather than the lower third for rollover ground balls. Fast forward a few months, and Payamps has exhibited both developments. He’s throwing more four-seam fastballs overall, particularly to right-handed batters.
He is also targeting that inner third against righties with his two-seamer.
Positive results from those fastballs have followed. Opponents had only a.169 wOBA versus Payamps’ four-seamer, with a 36.8% whiff rate. The average launch angle against his sinker has plummeted from 13 degrees last year to 6 this year, as has the wOBA against it, from.394 to.237. Despite improvements to his fastball mix, Payamps’ overall performance has declined. His ERA has increased by a full run, from 2.55 to 3.55, but his strikeout percentage has dropped from 26.8% to 20.8%.
In fairness to Payamps, 7 of the 11 earned runs he has allowed have come within two dreadful appearances. He has gone unscored-upon in 23 of 29 appearances (79.3%). Still, many metrics will agree that he has not been the same pitcher on a per-pitch basis that he was last year.
This year, Payamps has given back some of those improvements. After his slider averaged 11.9 inches of lateral movement last season, it’s averaging 9.7 inches in 2024. That’s the least movement it’s had since 2021.
Payamps has also lost his mastery of the glove-side breaking ball to righties. He’s now catching the middle of the plate with it far too often, and it’s frequently backing up on him over the inner half.
