This early in the NFL season, it’s natural to overreact to what we’ve seen thus far. Sample sizes may be low and strength of opponent is unknown, but it’s all the data we have to work with.
And for a team like Detroit Lions, who have historically disappointed their fanbase—even if the few instances of high expectation—it’s understandable that fan confidence dropped a small but significant amount thus far.
But will the struggles continue? No one has the actual answer to that right now, but it’s worth taking inventory of how bad it currently is, how likely the Lions will rebound, and if they’ll rebound soon enough for it to matter.
And because this is where most of the problems are through two weeks, let’s focus on the offense. Today’s Question of the Day is:
How concerning is the Lions’ start on offense?
My answer: Let’s first take inventory of the problem itself.
Detroit is averaging just 21.0 points per game, ranking 16th in the NFL. They’re averaging 5.7 yards per play, which is 11th. Just using the most basic of statistics, the Lions are still—at worst—a middle-of-the-back offense.
When you jump into some more advanced statistics, the story is not all that much different. They rank 18th in overall offensive DVOA (which is not defense-adjusted yet), but 10th (or 16th) in expected points added (EPA) per play. Again, we’re talking about an average performance on offense.
Of course, average is still a significant step down from previous years in which Detroit was producing arguably a top-five offense. And where we see the most significant drop-off is in the passing game. Yes, the Lions currently rank second in passing yards, but their efficiency metrics are way down.
Yards per attempt
2023: 7.6 (sixth)
2024: 6.4 (23rd)
Passer rating
2023: 98.2 (fifth)
2024: 70.6 (25th)
EPA/dropback
2023: +0.08 (fourth)
2024: -0.16 (20th)
As I pointed out earlier in the week, many of Jared Goff’s struggles have come with a clean pocket, which is typically his biggest strength.
So now that we’ve identified a clear problem, should we worry about it? I’m nowhere near there yet. First, let’s consider strength of opponent. We don’t know much about these teams yet, but what we do know is that last year the Buccaneers ranked 14th in pass defense DVOA while the Rams ranked 21st. Also, important for last week’s performance: the Bucs had the third-best red zone defense last year. Does that excuse a 1-of-7 performance from Detroit? No. That’s never going to be excusable. But it’s important context nonetheless.
Is that compelling enough evidence to suggest the Lions’ struggles are simply a matter of strong opponents through two weeks? I don’t think so, but it could be part of the equation, particularly with Tampa.
But what really has me optimistic the Lions will pull out of this slow start is Goff’s history. Yes, things did fall off with the Rams after a few successful seasons, but the one thing he has always been good at is playing with a clean pocket. Just look at these stats with “no pressure” since 2018, per NFL Pro.
2018: +0.45 EPA per dropback (third)
2019: +0.27 (11th)
2020: +0.22 (22nd)
2021: +0.16 (21st)
2022: +0.34 (second)
2023: +0.31 (fourth)
Were there some down years? Yeah, sure. But he still produced a positive number despite some severe issues around him, including a lack of a run game, questionable receiving corps (see 2021), and poor offensive line play that could certain impact his comfort level even when the pocket is clean.
His EPA per dropback this year for a clean pocket is -0.06, 27th in the NFL. That is significantly worse than any of his last six seasons, and based on every statistic I’ve seen and the film I’ve watched, there is no other reasonable explanation for this other than the most simple one: this is an outlier that will be straightened out with time.
So, in short, I’m not worried. There is no evidence in Goff’s career that he will continue to struggle like this. My overall concern level for the offense—especially considering I didn’t even mention how successful they remain at running the ball (highest success rate in the NFL)—is about 2.5 out of 10.
