August 22, 2024

Bruins have control of the series but can’t afford to let the Leafs hang around. Originally featured on NBC Sports Boston.

It may be difficult to recall, but the Toronto Maple Leafs once had control of their first-round Stanley Cup Playoff series against the Boston Bruins.

After losing 5-1 in Game 1, the Leafs responded strongly in Game 2. Their power play eventually broke through, their key players scored (including Auston Matthews’ game-winning goal in the third period), and goaltender Ilya Samsonov performed admirably. The Leafs were returning home for their next two games.

But all of that momentum vanished in Toronto, where the Bruins won two hard-fought games to seize a 3-1 series lead and force the Leafs to the verge of elimination. So far, the Bruins’ special teams dominance and superb goaltending have been the most noticeable changes. Toronto’s star players, particularly Mitch Marner, have struggled to provide offense consistently.

The series suddenly shifted in the Bruins’ favor, but if history is any guide, it could easily swing back in the opposite direction in a short period of time.

The fourth win in a best-of-7 series is always the most difficult, and the Bruins understand this better than most other teams.

NHL clubs have overcome 3-1 series deficits 32 times in postseason history, including seven times in the last ten years. The Bruins lost three of their 32 series:

2004 First Round versus. Montreal Canadiens
2010 second round vs. Philadelphia Flyers (the B’s also led 3-0)
2023 first round versus. Florida Panthers.
In 2013, the Bruins led 3-1 after defeating the Leafs in overtime in Game 4 on the road. Boston required a stunning Game 7 comeback to win the series.

This series against the Leafs has unfolded almost identically to last season’s first-round game against the Florida Panthers.

The Bruins won Game 1, then dropped the next game at home before winning two on the road to take a 3-1 series lead into Game 5 at TD Garden. However, the Panthers won the next three games, because to improved goaltending, tremendous special teams improvement, and their finest players, particularly Matthew Tkachuk, dominating the series. Two of Florida’s three consecutive victories came in overtime, including a Game 7 win in Boston.

“I think what we can learn is the urgency it takes to finish off a series,” Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery told reporters Sunday. “We understand how difficult it is to end a team’s season. I believe that everyone who participated last year is better off as a result.

The Leafs are in a tough situation right now. The star players were yelling at each other on the bench during the third period of Game 4. Their power play (1-for-14) and penalty kill (7-for-13) have been dismal. Marner is having the worst playoff series of his career and is being publicly criticised by the media and former teammates.

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