From the time he signed with the Detroit Lions in March 2023 to shortly after Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted in late April, David Montgomery’s fantasy value ranged from RB1 to RB3/flex. Montgomery was the “Thunder” to Gibbs’ “Lightning” last season, logging over 200 carries for over 1,000 yards on the ground and 13 rushing touchdowns. In conventional fantasy scoring, Montgomery was RB9 to Gibbs’ RB10.
With all of the attention focused on Gibbs, from general manager Brad Holmes stating that he will have a larger workload this year to an obvious progression as a pass catcher, Montgomery is, at the very least, being neglected. Montgomery had 50 red zone carries last year, tied for fourth in the NFL, and scored 11 touchdowns on those carries. However, he was more than simply a straight-line sledge hammer, causing 54 missed tackles on his 258 carries (including playoffs; the seventh-most forced missed tackles in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus).
Fantasy Football 2024: Will David Montgomer be a bust?
CBS Sportsline, relying on a notion of shocking fantasy flops that their projection algorithm routinely reveals, has Montgomery on the 2024 list.
“One of the 2024 Fantasy football busts the model is predicting: Lions running back David Montogomery. The 27-year-old finished as the RB15 in Fantasy during his first season in Detroit, posting the second 1,000-yard rushing season of his career. He was fifth in red-zone touches and scored the fourth-most touchdowns among running backs in one of the league’s best offenses.
“Montgomery’s volume decreased down the stretch of the season though, as he averaged 15 touches and 75.7 total yards following his return in Week 10. He is also expected to take more of a backseat to teammate Jahmyr Gibbs, who general manager Brad Holmes said would “see more of the load” in 2024. Montgomery out-carried Gibbs by nearly 40 touches last year, so he is being over-drafted based on those numbers.”
It’s unknown where the “RB15” finish originated. According to Fantasy Pros, Montgomery was RB13 and RB17 in 0.5-point and full PPR last year through Week 18. In Week 17, he was RB18 (full PPR), RB14 (0.5 PPR), and RB10 (standard). However, the overall point remains valid. Montgomery dropped five touches per game from his first five games last season to his final nine after returning from injury. In keeping with Gibbs’ increased workload. Montgomery also scored on 5.94 percent of his carries last year, with only four running backs outperforming him. Montgomery is unlikely to reach 200 carries this year, and Gibbs’ high percentage of red zone carries last year (37; eight inside the 5-yard line) is only going to increase.
