The Green Bay Packers will have to overcome the absence of Christian Watson in their game against the New York Giants on Monday night. “Obviously, anytime he’s not in the lineup, you lose that explosive threat that he is,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said this week. “I believe it will be done by committee.” We’ll have to rely a little more on the run to set up some stuff down the field.”
Just like everything in Green Bay’s passing game, the uptick in the deep game has been significant during the last five games. Between Week 9 and Week 13, a stretch of games spanning their victories over the Rams and Chiefs, Love’s 60.0 percent completion rate on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield is the fourth-best in the NFL among quarterbacks with more than 10 deep attempts.
According to Pro Football Focus, Love is 15-of-25 passing for 451 yards and four touchdowns and zero interceptions, good for a rating of 143.8. He is third in completions and yards and tied for second in touchdowns. Compare that to a woeful 9-of-35 to start the season with one touchdown and four interceptions and a 36.8 rating. While he’s caught only 5-of-16 deep targets this season, Watson is a premier long-range target because of his elite combination of size and speed. Coordinators and defensive backs alike must be wary of him on every snap. Even if the ball isn’t going to Watson, that stretch-the-field ability is good for the entire offense because it creates space for the other receivers. According to PFF, here are the numbers on Love’s downfield throws:
Jayden Reed: 6-of-13, 220 yards, one touchdown, one interception, zero drops. Watson: 5-of-16, 195 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, one drop. Romeo Doubs: 5-of-13, 130 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, zero drops. Dontayvion Wicks: 3-of-5, 79 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, zero drops. Samori Toure: 1-of-4, 35 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, zero drops. Malik Heath: 0-of-1, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, zero drops.
“I think it’s going to give these other guys some opportunities to make some plays,” Stenavich said. “You’ve seen Wicks, you’ve seen Romeo, Malik, all those guys, Jayden Reed, they are capable of stepping up and filling that void. So, it’ll be interesting to see how the game unfolds because there’s a lot of different guys that can step up and make those plays, I think.”
Not that the Packers will be lining up against the Giants with a bunch of turtles and sloths, but they will lack that truly game-breaking element. To Stenavich’s point, that will put the onus on a mediocre running game to be effective enough to set up the play-action game to create those big plays. The last five games – shocker – have been tremendous in that regard. From Week 9 through Week 13, 31 quarterbacks have had at least 20 play-action dropbacks. Love, according to PFF, is seventh with a completion rate of 72.5 percent, which is 9.1 percent better than on pure dropbacks. The Packers already have been leaning into the play-action game, with Love ranking second in attempts, first in completions and second in yards the last five weeks.
Love was fabulous in beating the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs on Sunday night, going 12-of-15 for 136 yards and one touchdown on play-action and 4-of-6 for 99 yards and one touchdown on passes of 20-plus yards.
