The Detroit Lions did not clinch a postseason spot on Sunday, but they did receive substantial assistance as a consequence of some Week 15 results. Most notably, Detroit’s path to their first divisional title is now as close to a certainty as it can be.
The Green Bay Packers’ loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped them to 6-8 on the season. Their maximum wins for 2023 are now just nine, meaning they cannot mathematically catch the 10-win Lions. That’s right. It’s officially just a two-team race for the NFC North crown. Take a look:
- Lions: 10-4
- Vikings: 7-7
- Packers: 6-8
- Bears: 5-9
The Lions hold a three-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings with only three weeks left. That means Detroit’s “Magic Number” is one. If the Lions win one more game OR the Vikings lose one more game, it’s over. The division crown will be Detroit’s
The complicating issue here is that two of each team’s remaining games are against each other. So if the Vikings were to sweep the Lions, they would just need both Week 17 results to tilt in their favor. The Vikings have to beat the Packers in Minnesota. And they’ll need Detroit to lose to the Dallas Cowboys. If the Lions split with the Vikings, if they beat the Cowboys, or if Minnesota falls to the Packers, Detroit clinches the division.
Just don’t lose out. And don’t let the Vikings win out.
Now let’s take a look at the entire NFC playoff picture:
NFC playoff picture through Week 15 (no MNF yet)
Division leaders
- 49ers: 11-3
- Eagles: 10-3 (play on MNF)
- Lions: 10-4
- Buccaneers: 7-7
Wild Card race (top three advance)
5. Cowboys: 10-4
6. Vikings: 7-7
7. Rams: 7-7
8. Saints: 7-7
8. Seahawks: 6-7 (play on MNF)
9. Falcons: 6-8
10. Packers: 6-8
11. Giants: 5-9
12. Bears: 5-9
would likely have to jump the 49ers in overall record, meaning the Lions would have to win out and the 49ers would have to lose at least two of their final three games:
- vs. Ravens
- at Commanders
- vs. Rams
That’s not impossible.
Detroit got some other seeding help with the Cowboys losing to the Bills. The Eagles take their spot atop the NFC East now. If the Eagles lose to the Seahawks on Monday night, the Cowboys take that No. 2 seed right back, as they have the tiebreaker over the Lions (7-3 conference record vs. Detroit’s 6-4) and the Eagles (better divisional record).
So no matter what, the Lions will stay in the three seed this week. But if the Cowboys and Eagles continue to lose, Detroit could jump into the two spot and threaten the 49ers for the top spot.
