The Red Sox have been linked to free-agent pitcher Jordan Montgomery throughout the winter, but no deal appears to be in the works. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the two sides have remained in communication, but the lefty wants a seven-year contract, which the team is unwilling to offer.
There are arguments for and against the Red Sox making a big splash to improve their rotation right now. Starting staff upgrades have been a priority since the offseason began, but the team has yet to complete them. They moved Chris Sale and then signed Lucas Giolito, which was something of a lateral move, depending on how you feel about those two pitchers. However, Giolito was recently diagnosed with a partial UCL tear and a flexor strain. The following steps are still unknown, although season-ending surgery is an option.
If Giolito is out, the Sox will start the season with the same rotation as last year, but without Sale. Nick Pivetta struggled enough last year to be sent to the bullpen, but he finished the season strong. Brayan Bello had a decent year, and the team certainly believes in him, as they recently signed him to an extension, but he appeared to run out of gas late in the season, and his low strikeout rate remains a source of concern. Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Garrett Whitlock have talented arms to round out the remainder of the staff, but those three are still not entirely established as starters, since none of them have cracked 130.
Adding someone like Montgomery would be a significant improvement, both this year and in the future. Over the last three seasons, he has pitched 524 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.48. He threw another 31 innings in the postseason last year with a 2.90 ERA, helping the Rangers win the World Series. Pivetta is set to enter free agency after 2024, so the need for rotation aid will be even greater a year from now.
However, the Sox may prefer to wait before signing another major contract. Many people consider them to be the American League East’s weakest club. The club’s lack of engagement this offseason implies that they see things similarly. Perhaps they don’t want to commit a large sum of money to Montgomery because they don’t believe in their present team.
When a club signs a player to a long-term contract, they normally expect to recuperate the greatest value in the early years while the player is still in their prime, but they are also aware that the latter years may be more difficult. If the Sox don’t
Instead, they might utilize 2024 to test young players like as Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Vaughn Grissom, Kyle Teel, Nick Yorke, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and others. They may trade imminent free agents such as Pivetta, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Tyler O’Neill this year to add to their young talent pool, then decide when is the best moment to make a huge move in the future. They might improve the rotation in the short term by signing Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi.
RosterResource currently lists their competitive balance tax figure as $211M, which is $26M below this year’s base threshold of $237M. They could fit in a big deal for someone like Montgomery without going over the line, but it would be fairly close. Next year’s CBT number, on the other hand, is only $133M, which does not include raises for arbitration-eligible players, but the appetite for giving out a big contract may be higher in the future than it is now.
Montgomery’s continued unsigned status as we reach the middle of March shows that no club has met his asking price. It’s reasonable that he wants to maximize his guarantee this winter, given that he had a fantastic season and helped the Rangers win the World Series.
This winter’s market has prompted some other free agents, most notably Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, to focus on short-term deals. Those two, along with Montgomery and Blake Snell, are represented by the Boras Corporation. Boras customers have traditionally been more ready to wait out the market than players from other agencies. However, Bellinger and Chapman were unable to find the long-term deals they were looking for, so they settled for shorter contracts with opt-outs that will allow them to return to free agency next winter or the following. According to reports, Snell is open to doing the same.
Montgomery may be less likely to do so, though, because he did not earn a qualifying offer at the start of the summer. Players traded midseason are ineligible for a QO, and Montgomery was traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers before the deadline. That means he may now be signed without the club losing any draft picks or international bonus pool funds. If he switched to a short-term deal with opt-outs, he would be quite likely to receive a QO when he returned to the free market, which would reduce his earning ability at that moment. He would also obviously be older, making him less likely to find a team prepared to make a long-term commitment.
