Pat Murphy has reduced Joey Ortiz’s playing time in recent weeks in favor of trying out Oliver Dunn. Is there any legitimate explanation for this decision?
Pat Murphy credited the last week or so to seeing what Oliver Dunn can accomplish when given a chance, and to be honest, Dunn has shown some promise. 50% of his batted balls travel at least 95 mph, but making consistent excellent contact has proven difficult. His defense has been excellent, and he is one of the fastest players in the majors. So, can Murphy’s decisions be justified?
The Bat Profiles Joey Ortiz has improved from his Triple-A performance last season. Big exit velocities in 2023 were offset by high ground ball rates as a result of overzealous chasing inside and below the strike zone, which hampered his ability to cause damage. So far this season, he hasn’t had as much access to hard-hit balls; nonetheless, his patience and awareness of what pitches he can damage has improved significantly. Ortiz’s pursuit and swing-and-miss rates are among the top 15% of baseball’s hitters, and his walk rate is in the top 3%.
Due to the lower exit velocities and ground balls, his expected numbers are significantly lower than his counting stats so far, with an expected slugging of just .346 on the year, mostly because he struggled to get the ball in the air, exactly as advertised. However, since the 19th of April, his expected line is .259/.373/.548, which matches the eye test. He’s been getting the ball in the air with a 29% fly ball rate, but there remains a slight question as to whether he can recover some of the extremely high exit velocities from Triple-A in 2023. It’s generally easier to hit the ball hard into the ground than in the air, but it is an area for even more growth in Ortiz’s hitting profile.
Oliver Dunn, on the other hand, has only made 70% of his contact since April 19th, which is incredibly low for a hitter with real strength in staying inside the strike zone. Jack Stern recently wrote about how batters have adapted to pummeling him in the strike zone, and he has demonstrated little ability to punish them when they do. When making contact throughout this time, he has a 55% hard-hit rate, so Murphy’s appeal is that if the contact skills improve, Oliver Dunn might be a difference-making bat, but he may need a little more seasoning at this point. In contrast to Ortiz, his predicted line is tiny.152/.217/.221. Here is his bat’s contact profile in the zone:
